As if we did not have enough problems, banks are now more vulnerable to the Black Swan [the rare, unpredictable, and extremely impactful event] and the ludic fallacy [applying rules for systems with well-defined uncertainty--i.e., games of dice--to situations with poorly-defined uncertiainty--i.e., unknown unknowns, where even the rules of the game are unknown] than ever before with 'scientists' among their staff taking care of exposures. The giant firm J. P. Morgan put the entire world at risk by introducing in the nineties RiskMetrics, a phony method aiming at managing people's risks, causing the generalized use of the ludic fallacy [. . .] Likewise, the government-sponsored institution Fanny Mae, when I look at their risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to the slightest hiccup. But not to worry: their large staff of scientists deemed these events 'unlikely'.
Well, the book came out a year-and-a-half ago. I'd call him prophetic, but the point of his book is precisely that these kinds of events are unpredictable.

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